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00:00.0
From Manila is author, columnist, and political scientist Richard Haydari.
00:05.4
And Richard, welcome to DW. Thanks so much for your time.
00:08.4
Now, these exercises are taking place for the first time outside Philippine territorial waters, aren't they?
00:13.8
Can you explain the significance of that?
00:18.8
There's so much unprecedented as far as these exercises are concerned.
00:22.7
Well, in terms of size and scale of the exercises, last year we also saw close to 16,000 troops,
00:28.8
not only from the Philippines and the United States,
00:31.8
but there were also participants and observers from other countries, including the United Kingdom,
00:36.2
not to mention Japan and Australia.
00:37.7
So in terms of size, it's not that different, but it's the orientation,
00:41.5
it's the type of weapon system that are being displayed and deployed this year,
00:45.6
not to mention, as you correctly pointed out,
00:48.1
some of the exercises are going to take place in the South China Sea,
00:52.6
that's outside the Philippine territorial sea,
00:54.6
so it's a direct challenge to China's expansive claims in that part of the world.
00:58.9
And this is one way for the United States to demonstrate its ironclad commitment to the Philippines
01:05.8
and also try to deter China.
01:07.8
But importantly, some of the exercises are also going to be close to Taiwan.
01:12.6
So in that sense, this year's Balikada exercises has a dual orientation of pushing back against China's aggressive intentions,
01:20.2
both in the South China Sea, but also in Taiwan.
01:22.6
Okay. We just heard there in our report, President Marcos mentioning the mutual defense strategy
01:28.8
that Manila has with the U.S.
01:31.9
What would that mean? What would it mean if that were to be invoked?
01:38.5
Right. So this is the big question nowadays.
01:41.7
What will it take for the United States to step in and intervene on behalf of the Philippines?
01:47.6
Because over the past six months, there were at least three incidents
01:50.9
where China deployed water cannons to disrupt the Philippine resupply missions
01:55.4
to some of the disputed land features, particularly to the second Thomas,
01:58.8
which is a low-tide elevation within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone,
02:01.5
but also claimed by China based on its expansive nine-dash line claim.
02:04.7
Now, in one of those incidents, multiple Filipino naval servicemen were injured.
02:09.7
So many are asking whether China is breaching its gray zone strategy,
02:14.5
meaning using all sorts of intimidation and bullying tactics,
02:17.5
but short of using lethal weapons, or are we talking about something quite differently?
02:24.1
So in light of that, I think the United States has felt compelled to come in
02:28.6
and disrupt the Philippine resupply missions to some of the disputed land features,
02:28.7
to draw the line, and this is a very important way.
02:31.1
I mean, another thing we didn't mention here is that the United States also deployed
02:34.1
its Typhoon missile defense systems, not to mention HIMARS
02:37.8
and a whole bunch of very advanced weapon systems for these exercises.
02:41.7
So all of this is showing that the United States and the Philippines also have options.
02:45.9
They can have a strong common front should China keep on pushing the envelope,
02:49.9
and the U.S. will not be just with empty rhetoric,
02:52.4
but it can intervene more effectively if things get really ugly in this part of the world.
02:56.1
But let's not forget, the provocateur is not the Philippines.
02:58.7
It's China that is threatening Taiwan through potential invasion.
03:03.1
It's China that is bullying the Philippines and the South China Sea.
03:05.8
So the Philippines is responding in kind.
03:07.8
And yet, President Marco Jr. also made it clear he doesn't want to escalate tensions,
03:11.6
so he's not going to give Americans extra basic access to the Philippines for the foreseeable future.
03:16.3
He's just maximizing what's already there.
03:19.6
Political scientist Richard Heydarian in Manila.
03:22.6
Richard, thank you so much for your analysis.
