00:43.0
Pero at the same time, this is a parallel attack.
00:46.0
Multi-parallel attack.
00:48.0
Yung isa, yung pulboron, drug addict framework.
00:51.0
Yung isa ay yung bringing us to war, anti-peace framework.
00:56.0
Ah, yung proxy war discourse.
01:00.0
Yung isa ay anti-corruption, focus on the speaker.
01:04.0
At yung mga friends ng presidente.
01:06.0
At yung isa na hindi pa masyado nag-unfold ay yung electoral fraud
01:10.0
na nililead ni General Rio.
01:12.0
Although si General Rio ay mukhang hindi naman nakalink dito.
01:16.0
Pero they might choose that.
01:19.0
So these are parallels.
01:21.0
Part of this, merong build up.
01:23.0
Like yung pulboron.
01:25.0
Si Maharlika mismo nagsabi that something big
01:28.0
is going to happen this month or next month.
01:31.0
Na kasama naman sa time frame ng the other side.
01:35.0
Yung pagdating ng ICC.
01:38.0
So nakikita mo yung convergence eh.
01:40.0
Whether this convergence is planned or not.
01:42.0
So both sides are seeing the collision coming.
01:44.0
And each side is waiting for the other side to chicken out or something.
01:49.0
So tinitingnan natin.
01:51.0
The other timeline some people are looking at is
01:59.0
And some are wondering maybe pwede ba mangyari yung ginawang kay Arroyo.
02:03.0
But now the stakes even higher.
02:07.0
I mean, last time I checked,
02:09.0
if you take over as the president in the third year,
02:12.0
based on the so-called Arroyo doctrine,
02:15.0
you can run again for another six years, right?
02:18.0
Maybe there's also the element of
02:20.0
if there will be a change in administration,
02:22.0
this year, especially the last,
02:24.0
the second quarter of this year,
02:26.0
sorry, third or fourth quarter of this year,
02:28.0
could be a best time, right?
02:30.0
Well, definitely the stakes are much higher
02:33.0
than the usual political dynamics in the Philippines.
02:37.0
Dahil hindi lang ito domestic eh.
02:39.0
We're in the middle of the great game of the superpowers.
02:42.0
So makikita mo yung mga indications
02:45.0
that they are involved, no?
02:47.0
Ang balat ng kabila kay BBM
02:49.0
is the EDCA framework, no?
02:52.0
Which is basically pandaw.
02:55.0
It's a kind of stooge ng US.
02:59.0
And the other side naman ay yung
03:01.0
trisonous relationship sa China.
03:05.0
So, the domestic lines are drawn,
03:08.0
pero malinaw that the domestic is also geopolitical.
03:12.0
The domestic is also international.
03:14.0
Kaya definitely tama ka that the stakes are high.
03:17.0
And because the stakes are high,
03:20.0
ay marami rin yung mga new elements
03:22.0
na papasok dito, unlike ng mga previous
03:25.0
political dynamics ng mga political actors,
03:29.0
opposition, administration, no?
03:32.0
Kaya very interesting itong mangyayari.
03:35.0
Not in the next few years,
03:37.0
but in the next few months, no?
03:40.0
Everything will come to a head, I believe, no?
03:43.0
Sooner than later.
03:45.0
Buljakan na yan. Buljakan naman yan.
03:48.0
At yung mga kinikwento natin yung mga marites,
03:51.0
ay mukhang nagkakatotoo na.
03:53.0
Self-fulfilling marites ang technical term dyan.
03:56.0
Kahit may nuances yung ating mga marites,
03:59.0
kahit may mga differences yung ating direction,
04:02.0
mukhang yung general frame is happening.
04:05.0
The general frame, no?
04:07.0
I think we correctly read the direction of the wind, no?
04:11.0
It's just a matter of how fast things will,
04:13.0
how quick the storm will hit the ground,
04:17.0
o kung mga ganun yan.
04:18.0
Hindi, tsaka ang nakakatawa ay
04:20.0
yung mga political actors ay pumapasok dito.
04:22.0
Ay pumapasok dito sa frame na politic natin.
04:25.0
Alimbawa, the first lady doing this interview with Tony.
04:28.0
The vice president answering the first lady.
04:31.0
The president answering also both the first lady and the vice president.
04:38.0
Tapos ngayon, yung binubuong ruling coalition ng presidente, no?
04:43.0
At itong scaling up ng attack kay Digong at sa kanyang mga political allies.
04:48.0
So, lahat ito ay pumapasok sa general frame
04:51.0
na pinag-usapan natin a year ago.
04:53.0
Exactly, exactly.
04:54.0
Of course, I understand that, you know,
04:56.0
maybe some side, kasi ano ito, labanan ito ng
04:59.0
whether never Duterte ka or never Marcos.
05:01.0
Mukhang mas maraming never Duterte ngayon
05:03.0
kasi medyo mas fresh yung wound, di ba,
05:05.0
from the Duterte years.
05:07.0
Ang tingin ko naman, so of course,
05:09.0
the next question will be,
05:11.0
let's say, mangyari itong bardagulan neto.
05:14.0
And of course, if you were to bet,
05:16.0
you would bet on the administration
05:18.0
because they have the resources, they have the alignments,
05:20.0
they have the superpower behind them,
05:22.0
the superpower behind them.
05:24.0
And medyo sabog din eh.
05:26.0
In a sense, ang daming mga rallies na inorganize yung mga Duterte side,
05:30.0
Tapos ngayon si Quiboloy, hindi natin.
05:33.0
Exactly. Ang daming supply.
05:36.0
At si Digong hindi sumisipot sa sariling press conference.
05:39.0
Ang sabog, di ba?
05:40.0
So, if you were to bet, di ba,
05:42.0
kung magheto etong ngalaman yan,
05:44.0
you would say you will bet on the administration side.
05:46.0
But that raises a new question, which is,
05:48.0
baka naman masyadong na-excite yung mga never Duterte
05:51.0
and they're being blindsided to the possibility
05:53.0
that this will create a dangerous power vacuum.
05:56.0
Because in a way, the Dutertes have been a de facto opposition and check
06:02.0
If the Dutertes are not around,
06:04.0
then suddenly maybe the Marcoses will feel emboldened
06:07.0
to push the envelope.
06:08.0
And then the scenarios that people are...
06:09.0
Kasi, di ba, ang argument ko is,
06:11.0
the reason why nag-accelerate etong fight within UNITEAM
06:15.0
is because, well, wala tayong kalapan.
06:17.0
Tayo na lang pare.
06:19.0
Because there's no pressure from outside.
06:21.0
That was the glue, eh.
06:22.0
Di ba? Kaya nga nag-UNITEAM to avoid the pinks from winning.
06:26.0
And lalo, lumalakas yung pink nung October pa lang.
06:29.0
So, with that element kind of on the sidelines,
06:32.0
which we'll discuss more,
06:33.0
my sense is there could be a new danger now
06:35.0
that if the Dutertes will be sidelined for good
06:38.0
once mangyari itong banggaan na ito,
06:41.0
then the next question will be,
06:42.0
baka magkakaroon ng dangerous vacuum
06:44.0
and nature abhors vacuum.
06:46.0
And in that situation,
06:47.0
Marcoses will be in a very ripe situation
06:49.0
to push for their counter-revolution,
06:52.0
if I can put it that way.
