01:35.1
Ang banwagoning. Presidential banwagoning.
01:37.5
O yun yung isa. Pero in one sense, tignan mo yung 15-16 million votes ng pink lawan. Tignan mo yung voluntarism. Tignan mo yung huge rallies.
01:50.8
Nasabi ko nga kay Randy David, Randy, may hila akong nakakita lang ngayon, si Edza.
01:55.5
Ang ganyan, 1.2 million, 700,000. Sunod-sunod ah. Sunod-sunod ang mga rallies. Hindi ito yung maghihintay ka ng taon.
02:06.4
Sunod-sunod. Tapos nakikita mo. Pumupunta kasi ako earlier.
02:11.3
Kita mo yung gumagawa ng sariling costumes, gumagawa ng sariling clock cards, naghihintay ng 10-12 hours.
02:19.7
This is something else. Ikaw ba maghihintay ka ng 10-12 hours? Para sa isang kandidato?
02:25.5
So, ibig sabihin, ang naging problema dyan ay hindi na-harness. Hindi na bigyan ng direksyon. Hindi na bigyan ng leadership.
02:34.1
Leadership, exactly.
02:36.0
Ibig sabihin, it's there. Sinasabi ko lang, it's there. Nasayang.
02:41.3
But Ronald, I want to ask you. I think we already discussed that to a certain degree. We had so many episodes on what was lacking with opposition.
02:50.0
But I was thinking about something else. Lela, I want to also get your point on this.
02:53.8
To what degree was that explosion of support for Lenny also because you had the possible return of Marcos plus Duterte?
03:02.6
It was like double whammy threat. To what degree was this really about loving Lenny and the opposition and hating that not only Duterte will be still around but Marcos will come back?
03:15.8
Do you get what I'm saying? Kasi my thinking is, was that also negative solidarity?
03:19.8
Sa tingin ko, naging successful din yung competition.
03:23.8
Sa tingin ko, mga 2010, nagsimula yung mga pro-Marcos blogs. Nag-react talaga yung mga certain elite institutions at saka mga universities na talagang binombard yung mga studyante with facts about the Marcos period.
03:44.1
And, you know, nasa Ateneo tayo ng panahon na yan. May marami tayong kaibigan sa UP, sa Lasal. Talagang umarangkada ang martial law education.
03:52.7
And I think for our particular...
03:53.8
For our particular generation, lalo na yung generation na nag-late high school, nag-college from let's say 2010 to 2020, ang dami niyang alam about martial law.
04:01.2
Dahil kumambi talaga yung mga educators. And then, obviously, nag-cascade yan. Pero within a particular class yan.
04:07.8
Within a particular class and within a particular educational bracket. Pero talagang, siguro talagang nag-init sila dahil ang dami lang natutunan over the past 10 years.
04:18.2
In a way, we shouldn't also super blame yung academics, yung mga kagaya natin.
04:23.8
You're right. Can you say about that more?
04:27.0
Who engaged in counter-propaganda dito ang panahon na ito? Dahil talaga marami naman talaga tayong ginawa. Mahirap lang talaga yung kalaban.
04:35.1
But there is a base na na-educate yung 10 years na yun. Kasi pumalag naman yung mga tao. I mean, tignan mo lang yung mga librong nasulat noong panahon na yun.
04:41.7
Ang daming memoirs. May Tibac Rising, merong yung Kimpo Memoir, ang daming mga volume, ganyan. So, hindi naman nagkulang ng materyales at ng effort.
04:51.9
Hindi tayo nagkulang, lalo.
04:53.8
We did our best talaga.
04:55.4
Kaya nga, may weakness din talaga yung campaign. Alimbawa, too late na nagpa siya yung kandidato. Practically, nagpa siya yung kandidato on the eve of the filing.
05:09.3
Deadline of filing, I think.
05:11.1
Habang yung mga kalaban, matagal nang naghahanda. Ikalawa, yung strategy sa campaign.
05:20.0
Kung titignan mo yung campaign ni BBM at ni Sarah,
05:23.8
halos one issue lang yung dala-dala. Habang yung campaign ni Lenny, very cluttered. Ang daming messages.
05:39.3
So, makikita mo yung strength ng isang single message compared to ang daming messages. So, yun yung one.
05:50.7
I want to ask you this. I'll go back to Lely first.
05:53.8
What if, Lely, it might turn out actually the opposite of what I was saying?
05:57.9
Maybe, actually, the pink might turn out more historically resilient than the DDN.
06:03.2
Once the father is gone, this might not be so strong.
06:06.7
While the pink movement has a long-term...
06:09.2
Kasi the seeds have been planted. I'm seeing it in the comment section.
06:12.3
Some are actually pushing back. I actually agree with that. That's a possibility.
06:15.2
That's exactly what I meant.
06:17.1
Lely, and then we'll go to Ronald.
06:18.4
Well, historically, sasabihin mo na talagang malakas.
06:23.8
Kasi nagsimula ka, 86 eh.
06:26.7
In a way, meron talagang ganyang klaseng base na yung liberal, middle class, and also religious kind of religious base.
06:34.8
Ito yung mga makakori pa.
06:36.2
Tsaka marami, syempre, ito sa nagpunta doon sa kay Lenny, mga anak, mga apo, nung mga galing doon sa original yellow movement.
06:44.7
And I remember early on pa lang, nung si Marcos, for example, daming rally, nung nalibingan ang mga bayani si Marcos.
06:51.9
Ang daming mong nakikita doon sa ayan.
06:53.8
Kaya lang, pag kinakausap mo sila, sasabihin nila sa'yo, dito kami nagsimula nung 80s, nagpapamudbud kami ng yellow confetti, bumabalik kami ngayon, kasama namin yung mga anak namin.
07:05.3
So talagang, yung base yan, totoo yan. At historically, makapangyarihan.
07:09.6
So kung mag-zoom out ka, baka sabihin mo, actually, well, from 86 onwards, makapangyarihan sila.
07:15.0
And then there was this, we could, you know, in 20 years, we could look back at this moment and say na baka blip yung panahon ni Duterte na mahina yung base na yan.
07:22.7
And then when you zoom out, baka...
07:23.8
Ah, sobrang lakas pala. Ewan natin.
07:26.4
Ikaw, Rona, do you think this is actually part of a rebirth transition for the opposition?
07:31.5
A more progressive, more Riza Juntiveros-ish version coming out?
07:35.7
Tama. Tama. Tama yun. Tama yung sinasabi ni Leloy.
07:39.3
Pero kung i-deconstruct natin, yung bumoto at nagpanalo historically dito kay BBM at saka kay Sara, these are basically the D&E.
07:49.5
So it also reflects yung weakness ng...
07:53.8
It's affecting ed sa institutions in leveling the playing field para sa mga may hirap.
08:00.8
Itong mga may hirap, ang tingin nila, wala namang masyadong difference eh.
08:04.4
Economic justice, social justice.
08:06.7
Oo. So yun yung vulnerability na in-exploit ng mga reactionary forces.
08:15.5
Wala kayong maaasahan dyan sa mga yan. Kami naman.
08:19.0
Ganun yung bahagi ng kanilang narrative eh. Kami naman.
08:21.8
Mismo yung nostalgia ay nakadikit doon eh.
08:26.1
Sinabi na, noong panahon ni matandang Marcos, mas maganda ekonomiya, mas maganda ang inyong kalagayan.
08:32.3
Eh ito, sobrang mga bata na, hindi na malalaman yun, hindi na nachecheck eh.
08:37.3
Tapos, siyempre, meron kang isang popular na digong na sinakyan din yung ganun klaseng narrative.
08:45.6
Dinemonize yung lahat ng mga...
08:51.8
Dilaw or pink or reformist during his six years.
08:56.5
During his six years. Dinemonize talaga ng gusto.
08:58.8
At bakit na-demonize? Dahil yung DNE, ang tingin, wala naman nagbago sa aming economic situation.
09:09.5
Wala naman nagbago sa aming social services. Kahit meron na nagbago, hindi dramatic.
09:19.7
At yung vulnerability nila.
09:21.8
Ronald, I think yung isang mga pinakaunang nagpoint out dito yung kaibigan natin, si Sir Julay Tihanki.
09:27.9
Hindi lang DNE eh, it's also an element of yung lower middle class na ascendant na galit na.
09:35.6
Aspirational na. Nakarating na kami dito, umama na kami, pero bakit ang baba pa rin ang tingin nyo sa amin?
09:41.2
May ganun klaseng...
09:41.9
May iPhone na, may kotse na, nagka-call center.
09:45.3
Kaya actually, tingnan mo yung mga vlogs early on.
09:47.8
Kasi si Duterte, di ba?
09:50.0
He was the president who appointed...
09:51.8
He appointed the most number of Supreme Court judges na hindi galing sa UP or Ateneo.
09:55.7
May mga galing Ateneo de Davao, may mga galing San Beda.
09:59.0
At kung tingnan mo yung mga vlogs, talagang yung discourse doon is kami naman over yung big four.
10:05.9
The counter elite.
10:06.6
Even within the middle class, may na-harness na distinctions.
10:11.9
And actually, very potent force yung immigrant middle class sa Pilipinas.
10:16.2
Tandaan natin na ang Katipunan, for example, was a kind of lower middle class force.
10:19.6
The Philippine Revolution was formed by...
10:21.8
Lower middle class force.
10:23.2
Dahil yung mga tipong kagaya ni Bonifacio, galit siya sa Kastila.
10:27.7
Pero galit din siya doon sa traditional elite na mamayagpag.
10:31.9
Kasi feel niya, mahina yung traditional elite na yun.
10:35.4
So kaya itong lower middle class force ito, sila yung namayagpag noong Philippine Revolution.
10:39.6
May potency yung lower middle class sa Ateneo.
10:42.7
It was also a perfect storm.
10:44.3
Dahil yung malaking bahagi ng lower middle class na sinasabi mo, are OFWs.
10:49.1
Di ba? Mga OFW to.
10:50.7
Kahit saan pumunta kang bansa.
10:51.8
Kaya overwhelming yung support ng OFW kay Digong.
10:56.3
And their family.
10:57.9
Their family kasi maliit lang yung voting ng...
10:59.9
Perfect storm dahil nakuha ni Digong yung kanilang fears at concern para sa mga pamilya nila rito.
11:11.8
Kahit walang nagawa si Digong para solusyonan yan,
11:15.1
yung mantra na sasagipin ko ang inyong mga pamilya,
11:19.9
sasagipin ko ang inyong mga anak,
11:21.8
na lulun sa drugs.
11:25.4
Poprotektahan namin ang inyong mga magulang sa mga petty criminals.
11:29.8
Hindi makalabas ng maaga, etc.
11:32.8
So nakadagdag yan eh.
11:34.8
Yung ganyang klaseng mantra with Digong.
11:38.2
At siya yung perfect na kandidato.
11:40.9
Siya yung perfect na kandidato.
11:42.6
Nakakatawan din sa ganyang klaseng fears and insecurity.
11:47.7
Kaya sinasabi ko perfect storm eh.
11:50.7
Nalala ko, eto hindi ko talaga makalimutan,
11:53.5
Dana na elect si Duterte.
11:54.9
Meron kasi, ando ka ata sa political science department noon Richard eh.
11:58.3
Meron tayong colleague na,
11:59.8
ang undergrad niya, San Beda.
12:01.8
Ang postgrad niya,
12:02.9
tapos nagturo siya sa Ateneo.
12:04.6
Tapos sabi niya sa amin,
12:05.7
hindi nyo lang talaga maintindihan yung San Beda mentality dito.
12:09.2
Kasi lahat ng presidente galing Ateneo at UP.
12:11.7
Ako galing ako sa San Beda,
12:12.9
hindi mo alam kung gano'ng kagalit kami sa inyo.
12:16.5
At gano'ng kaimportante to para dun sa mindset na yun.
12:19.5
I'll never forget that.
12:20.5
I'll never forget that.
12:20.7
So doon mo nakuha yung sinabi mo sa akin.
12:24.2
You had a different version of saying it.
12:26.9
I mean we had exactly the same take, no?
12:29.1
This is the non-quad or non-top three elite of the Philippines, di ba?
12:34.7
Ikaw, USD ka di ba, Rona?
12:36.1
Hindi lang kasi nga.
12:37.2
Yung word ko dito napaka-simple.
12:38.9
Hindi lang niya hinati yung D at E.
12:42.0
Hindi lang niya hinati yung D at E versus A and B.
12:44.9
Hinati niya yung B.
12:47.1
Hinati niya yung B.
12:48.1
Hinati niya yung B.
12:51.2
Ronald, kayo mga tagay USD, meron ba kayong galit sa mga talaga?
12:54.2
Actually, actually, actually, pag tinignan mo ang numbers, Leloy,
12:59.3
yung A and B ay dominant si Digong.
13:03.9
Dominant si Marcos sa A and B.
13:06.4
Mas malaki lang yung dominance niya sa D and E.
13:10.5
Kaya 31 million eh, no?
13:12.1
Pero yung mismo yung A, B, and C, no?
13:15.8
Ay panalo si Digong at saka panalo si BBM, no?
13:20.7
Yung boto ni Lenny na 15 to 16, yan din yung boto ni Pinoy noong 2010, no?
13:27.6
So, ibig sabihin, yan yung, parang ito yung base na ito at hindi nakalabas ng value added, no?
13:34.3
Tama yung sayo mo, ito na yung mga dating magkakasama eh.
13:37.4
Ito na yung dating galit eh, no?
13:39.7
Ang problema, walang nadagdag.
13:42.6
Lalong na sa D and E.
13:44.7
Alimbawa, nanonood kami ng kwan, ng debate, nandiyan kami sa UP Hotel, no?
13:49.4
Andun lahat yung kwan.
13:50.4
Pag nagsasalala si Lenny, palakpakan yung mga estudyante, palakpakan yung mga kwan do, no?
13:56.2
Ang ginawa namin ni Louie Corral, Louie, tawagin natin yung mga kwan, yung mga waiters.
14:01.8
Sinawag namin, no?
14:03.6
Sabi na, tinanong namin sila, isa-isa.
14:06.9
Sinong iboboto nyo?
14:09.4
Iboboto nila si BBM.
14:11.6
Kaya makikita mo, sa UP ah, sa UP Hotel, makikita mo yung class divide, no?
14:20.4
kailangan natin tignan
14:21.6
how to consolidate itong pink,
14:24.7
how to harness them into a strong organization.
14:28.6
Pero, paano mababalue added?
14:31.1
Paano madadagdagan yan galing sa D and E?
14:34.5
Walang maayos na strategy yung campaign last time.
14:39.1
Babalik na ako, meron ding element talaga ng surtihan sa ekonomiya.
14:42.7
Yung original topic natin, Richard, meron element ng surtihan.
14:46.0
And ito yung diferensya ni Marcos at si Duterte.
14:48.6
Yung nang pumasok si Duterte, he was poised to engender economic reform dahil laki ng surplus.
14:57.4
Tapos, mababa yung interest rate.
15:01.0
Maganda yung credit rating ng Pilipinas.
15:03.1
So, kung mababa yung interest rate, meaning maraming pwedeng makautang, lalago yung ekonomiya, ganyan.
15:08.4
Maganda yung credit rating, meaning yung gobyerno pwedeng mangutang at pwedeng gumasta.
15:13.2
At pangatlo, ang laki ng surplus.
15:15.1
Kasi nga, anti-corruption yung platform ni Noy Noy.
15:18.1
1 trillion yung savings na binigay kay Digong.
15:23.3
So, pagpasok na pagpasok ni Digong, naalala mo, sabi ni Diokno, the Aquino government, criminally underspent.
15:32.0
Instead na, pasalamatan ang Aquino government na nag-underspent at binigyan sila ng pera, tinawag na kriminal.
15:39.9
Effectively, pag-amin yun, the party secretary Diokno, malaki pera namin.
15:44.0
Marami kami pwedeng gawin dito, diba?
15:45.6
Kasi criminally underspent daw.
15:47.1
So, yun yung accusation niya kay Butchabad, his predecessor.
15:50.3
So, kaya nga, nung first 3 years si Digong, first 4 years si Digong, sabi nga ni Charmine, and again, babalikan ko na babalikan itong pag-aaral nito,
15:58.7
Charmine Ramos, highest levels of social spending in the post-EDSA period.
16:04.9
And by social spending, I think she defines it as education, health, and may isa pa, education, health, something similar.
16:13.8
Kung ano man yung mga things na ginagasta ng DSWD.
16:17.1
So, hindi kayang gawin ni Marcos yun.
16:20.2
Kasi, una, mas malaki na utang mo, yung credit rating mo, hindi kasing lakas.
16:25.3
Post-pandemic ka, so mas maliit talaga yung pay.
16:29.1
Pangatlo, ang taas ng interest rate regime, dahil nagtataas ng interest rate ang US, nagtataas ng interest rate ang Central Bank.
16:37.1
So, hindi mo kaya magpamudbud ng pera as much as nung panahon ni Digong.
16:40.3
And that, I think, explains why hindi kasing teflon si BBM ni Digong.
16:44.7
Dahil yung economic circumstances are not similar.
16:48.2
Because hindi nauna si Aquino sa kanya.
16:51.3
I mean, which, okay, I think we can stop there and go to the final.
16:55.0
Dagdag lang ng konti, Richard, to para support.
16:56.9
Well, you want to make sure you don't want to bring this to the next episode kasi mayroon manapit.
16:59.7
Para lang supportahan yung sinabi ni Leloy.
17:02.3
Nung survey, nung December 2020, I'm not sure, 2020, nung 91% si Digong.
17:16.3
Nung tinignan namin yung reason doon sa survey, ayuda, ayuda, ayuda.
17:23.7
Ibig sabihin talagang, ano eh, yung social spending para sa ayuda lumaki as never before.
17:31.0
At naging source yan nung record high na 91% approval rating.
17:37.4
At doon may hihirapan ngayon si BBM.
17:39.8
But again, Roland, my problem with that kind of tactical situation explanation is that he held 80-90% approval through,
17:46.9
I mean, that guy never went down to 60-70%.
17:49.4
So I don't think we can explain it by just ayuda or by just West Philippines.
17:53.6
He had really a kind of a structural, phenomenal kind of charisma.
17:57.9
Of course, of course.
17:58.7
May charisma rin.
17:59.8
Kaya nga yung point ko, malakas ang DDS for the foreseeable future.
18:03.3
I think they're stronger than the dilawan or pink, whatever you want to call them.
18:08.0
So I'm actually not contradicting myself fully.
18:10.3
So I'll stand by my word that Leloy, I think in the short to medium term, mas malakas ang DDS kaysa pink.
18:15.8
But the pink has more potential for, if it goes down to marathon in 10 to 20 years, I think the potential is very strong.
18:23.2
So in that sense, I think we have a more or less agreement.
18:28.3
Kaya division ang unity.
18:31.3
And it's because ano ba ang mas cult of personality, yung DDS o yung pink?
18:36.5
Sa tingin ko, yung pink, yung DDS ang mas cult of personality.
18:40.6
How dare you, moral equivalent.
18:43.3
Mas reliant on the leader.
18:45.8
At mas mahirap ipasa.
18:48.1
Siguro kayang ipasa kay Sarah, pero hindi.
18:52.0
Yung dilaw-pink narrative, meron na siyang clear history of the leadership being passed.
18:58.4
From Cory to Noy-Noy, and then from Noy-Noy to Lenny.
19:01.2
Itong sa DDS, hindi ka pa sure kung paano na ipapasa.
19:05.2
Leloy, this is a classic authoritarian transition succession problem, right?
19:10.0
That's the problem.
19:10.9
It doesn't pass from father to daughter necessarily.
19:13.7
That's the problem with non-democrats.
19:15.8
It's a democratic system and also not democratic charisma.
19:18.5
Charisma is hard to pass down and to institutionalize.
19:21.1
Eh, yun din naman yung failure ng original Marcos, diba?
19:24.2
Hindi maipasa eh.
19:25.3
Hindi maipasa ni Apolakay yung kanyang kapangyarihan.
19:28.5
Kaya nag-away-away.
19:29.7
Hindi alam kung pupunta ka ba kay Ver.
19:31.8
Pupunta kay Imelda.
19:33.0
Kung pupunta kay Enrile.
19:34.3
Kaya nag-away-away sila dahil hindi maipasa.
19:36.7
Baka yun rin yung mangyari sa DDS.
19:38.4
Baka hindi maipasa yung mantle ni Digo.
19:40.4
I mean, usually the way it works is you have a number of yes men.
19:45.8
To be as a transition persons until the next big man comes.
19:49.0
So in the case of China, you have Deng Xiaoping choosing Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.
19:53.1
Two dry, loyal guys.
19:55.0
And then Xi Jinping comes and becomes the next big man.
19:57.5
So usually parang ganun.
19:58.9
And that's what Marcos didn't have.
20:00.4
Two stable, reliable people to shepherd the transition.
20:05.0
And then before Bongbong Marcos or someone else comes in.
20:07.8
And then from Digo to Sara, I don't see the transition.
20:11.1
But anyway, I think this sets the tone for the last episode we're gonna have for now.
20:15.8
Kasi guys, I hope you understand where I'm coming from.
20:18.6
I just wanna make sure I can put a title sa conversation.
20:22.5
Because this is all over the place.
20:27.0
So yung mga nagagalit sa akin na why I interject is because guys,
20:30.4
pag-edit pa kayo or gumagawa kayo ng podcast and all,
20:33.1
you have to have a title.
20:34.2
There should be cut-off point.
20:35.3
Otherwise, Joe Rogan na to ng four hours.
20:39.5
Bataas ang viewership ni Joe Rogan.
20:42.7
But we're not trying to compete with him yet.
20:47.1
Give us four years.
20:48.3
Now we'll get that.
20:49.2
Thank you so much.
20:50.0
Maraming salamat, Ronald.
